Real Estate: Mortgage Rates Finally Drop — Will It Be Better To Buy a House at Thanksgiving or Christmas?

The recent drop in mortgage rates has ignited a spark of hope among prospective homebuyers. The significant decrease to 7.61% in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, a notable reduction from 7.86%, marks the largest single-week decline since July 2022, as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). This decline follows a period of rates hovering around 8% and seems to be a reaction to the Federal Reserve’s pause in rate hikes on November 1. But the critical question remains: Is this the right time to buy a house? And if yes, should potential buyers target Thanksgiving or Christmas for their purchase?

Timing Your Home Purchase: Thanksgiving vs. Christmas

Seizing the Opportunity: The Present Scenario

Dan Mugge, Chief Operating Officer for Calque, advocates for immediate action in home buying. He highlights the futility of renting, emphasizing the benefits of investing in property even in the face of high prices and interest rates. The current real estate landscape is marked by a combination of strong home prices and limited inventory, a situation partly due to homeowners choosing to retain their properties, benefiting from the low mortgage rates obtained in recent years.

Jason Sorens from the American Institute for Economic Research shares a similar perspective, noting the unpredictability of future rate movements. He points out that while there’s currently a wider selection available, the inventory typically dips around Christmas and January. However, he also cautions that a potential recession next year could lead to even lower rates.

The Balancing Act: Assessing the Risks and Rewards

Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at, sheds light on the delicate balance of the current market. The recent softening of mortgage rates, influenced by the Fed’s consecutive pauses and the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December, presents both opportunities and challenges. A surge in buyers responding to lower rates could exacerbate the competition, potentially driving prices up and offsetting the advantages of reduced rates.

Jones advises buyers to monitor market dynamics closely when considering a home purchase this winter. With housing demand currently outpacing the available inventory, the market remains competitive in many areas, creating a challenging environment for potential buyers.

Conclusion: Weighing Your Options

When deciding whether to buy a house at Thanksgiving or Christmas, consider the current trend of falling mortgage rates and the potential fluctuations in the market. While the opportunity to purchase at lower rates is appealing, the competitive market and the possibility of price increases must be taken into account. Keeping an eye on market trends, particularly in the lead-up to the FOMC meeting, will be crucial for making an informed decision.

In conclusion, whether to buy at Thanksgiving or Christmas hinges on individual financial readiness, market conditions, and the potential for future rate and inventory changes. Prospective buyers should carefully weigh these factors to determine the most opportune time for their home purchase.